{"id":307,"date":"2026-03-21T07:51:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T07:51:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/poznayu.com\/en\/?p=307"},"modified":"2026-03-21T07:53:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T07:53:02","slug":"iran-war-outlook-2026-timeline-oil-prices-and-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/poznayu.com\/en\/iran-war-outlook-2026-timeline-oil-prices-and-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran War Outlook 2026: Timeline, Oil Prices, and Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>

More than three weeks have passed since the start of large-scale strikes on February 28. The initial sense of rapid success has faded, replaced by a more realistic view: a swift collapse of the regime has not materialized (the regime itself, though its military capabilities remain under pressure). U.S. carrier strike groups and Israeli airpower continue targeting nuclear and missile infrastructure. At the same time, Iran\u2019s air defense network\u2014though heavily degraded and close to exhaustion\u2014remains operational, and retaliatory missile attacks on bases in the Persian Gulf have shifted from isolated incidents to a sustained pattern.<\/p>\n

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Forecasts for the End of the War<\/h2>\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n

The central question analysts and military planners are asking now is when Washington will decide that its objectives have been achieved and begin winding down the operation.<\/p>\n

From a military standpoint, an intensive air campaign cannot continue indefinitely:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • The United States and Israel have a clearly defined target set: nuclear facilities (primarily Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan), ballistic missile launch systems, IRGC command centers, and air defense infrastructure.<\/li>\n
  • According to intelligence assessments, by the end of March, most of these targets will either be destroyed or damaged to the point that reconstruction would take years.<\/li>\n
  • Once that stage is reached, the intensity of strikes will inevitably decline\u2014bombing \u201cempty targets\u201d carries no strategic value, either militarily or politically.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    However, there is an important factor affecting the timeline:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Iran continues to respond, and the longer the strikes continue, the higher the risk of broader regional involvement.<\/li>\n
    • The Houthis in Yemen have already intensified attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria are striking U.S. bases, while Hezbollah has increased pressure along Israel\u2019s northern border.<\/li>\n
    • Each new front consumes resources and raises the probability of escalation or miscalculation that no party originally intended.<\/li>\n
    • The Trump administration, known for its aversion to prolonged conflicts, is unlikely to engage in a war of attrition ahead of congressional midterm elections.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      The political dimension may ultimately outweigh the military one.<\/strong><\/p>\n

      In his February 28 address, Trump clearly outlined two objectives: denying Iran nuclear weapons and giving the Iranian people \u201ca chance at freedom\u201d:<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. The first objective is achievable within weeks of sustained bombardment.<\/li>\n
      2. The second is not. Regime change does not follow a timetable, and U.S. public opinion\u2014shaped by the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan\u2014would not support a long-term occupation.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        As a result, the most likely scenario is that once the core nuclear and missile facilities are disabled, Trump will declare victory and begin scaling back operations, leaving the question of political change to internal forces within Iran.<\/p>\n

        What is happening on the ground now, one month in?<\/strong><\/p>\n

        Despite the loss of seven key figures in the early days (and additional losses since), the Iranian regime has demonstrated remarkable resilience. The IRGC command structure has adapted, new personnel have replaced those killed, and the propaganda apparatus is fully active\u2014framing the strikes as \u201cheroic resistance.\u201d Expected protests have not materialized so far. External pressure tends to consolidate national unity rather than weaken regimes in such contexts. The economy is under strain, but Iran has spent decades under sanctions and has developed mechanisms to endure.<\/p>\n

        Economic pressure, however, could ultimately determine the duration of the active phase. Oil prices have surged (see below), directly affecting American consumers, and the longer the conflict persists, the greater the political pressure on the White House. China and Russia, while not intervening militarily, are leveraging the situation to strengthen their positions and undermine U.S. influence globally. Every additional week benefits Washington\u2019s geopolitical rivals, and this is well understood in Washington.<\/p>\n

        So when might the war in Iran end?<\/strong><\/p>\n

        Based on a combination of factors\u2014military logic (primary targets achieved), political risks (regional escalation), domestic pressure (oil prices and elections), and external dynamics (China and Russia)\u2014the active phase of the air campaign is likely to conclude by early May 2026. By that time, the main nuclear facilities will be disabled, Iran\u2019s missile arsenal significantly reduced, and its air defenses largely incapable of resisting sustained strikes. Further escalation would yield diminishing returns.<\/p>\n

        But what comes next?<\/strong><\/p>\n

        A full end to hostilities is unlikely. A frozen conflict is the more probable outcome, with periodic exchanges of strikes, economic pressure, and cyber operations. The United States will likely reduce its military footprint in the region, maintaining only minimal forces to protect allies. Israel will continue targeted operations against Iranian assets, but without direct U.S. air support.<\/p>\n

        Iran, having lost its nuclear capability for the foreseeable future, will focus on rebuilding and developing new asymmetric methods of pressure.<\/p>\n

        By June 2026<\/strong>, most active combat operations are expected to wind down, transitioning into a phase of standoff.<\/p>\n

        This will not be peace, but it will not be full-scale war either. Trump will be able to declare victory\u2014having curtailed Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions without becoming entrenched in a prolonged conflict. Iran will preserve its regime but at the cost of significant economic and military weakening. The region, as is often the case, will remain unresolved, with underlying tensions and a new arms race likely to begin once Tehran recovers.<\/p>\n

        Oil price outlook (Iran conflict)<\/h2>\n

        <\/p>\n

        Forecasting oil prices in this context is significantly more complex due to multiple variables. For example, the United States has allowed the sale of Iranian oil from tankers loaded before March 20, 2026, in an effort to stabilize energy prices.<\/p>\n

        According to our outlook, the active phase of military operations\u2014with intensive strikes on Iranian infrastructure\u2014will end by May\u2013June 2026. However, normalization of oil supply will take much longer, and prices are likely to remain elevated through the end of the year.<\/p>\n

        Even if a ceasefire is reached relatively quickly, the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen immediately. It will require mine clearance, restoration of insurance coverage, and the return of confidence among tanker operators. While the strait remains effectively restricted, up to 15\u201320% of global oil supply is disrupted. This shortage cannot be fully offset even with large-scale releases from strategic reserves.<\/p>\n

        In a base scenario where hostilities subside by late spring, Brent crude is likely to trade in the range of $100\u2013120 per barrel through the end of summer, with occasional spikes above that level if new incidents occur.<\/p>\n

        The key uncertainty remains the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

        If Iran maintains a blockade for more than 6\u20138 weeks (for example, into the summer), prices could exceed $150 per barrel<\/strong>. In a scenario involving a collapse of export infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and escalation of strikes on oil production and refining facilities, Brent could briefly reach $170\u2013180<\/strong>. At the same time, markets have already priced in a significant war premium, and any signal of reopening or de-escalation could trigger a sharp correction.<\/p>\n

        Even in a more optimistic scenario, a return to pre-war levels of $70\u201380 in 2026 is unlikely<\/strong>\u2014markets will need months to rebuild supply chains and restore trader confidence. Peak prices are expected around April, followed by a gradual decline after May\u2013June. However, Brent is unlikely to fall below $85\u201390<\/strong> by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

        The moral dimension of the Iranian regime<\/h2>\n

        <\/p>\n

        The Iranian regime is fundamentally immoral because it systematically violates basic human rights and maintains power through deception, violence, and religious extremism.<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Women are treated as second-class citizens (inheritance, legal testimony, divorce rights). They face public punishment and even death for refusing to wear a hijab, as in the case of Mahsa Amini.<\/li>\n
        2. Men are executed for homosexuality, blasphemy, alcohol consumption, and political dissent.<\/li>\n
        3. The regime funds terrorist groups (Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) that deliberately target civilians in Israel, Lebanon, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia.<\/li>\n
        4. Inside the country, there is pervasive censorship, torture in prisons, execution of minors, and the shooting of protesters in the streets.<\/li>\n
        5. This is not a \u201crepublic,\u201d but a theocratic dictatorship in which the Ayatollahs and the IRGC hold 90 million people hostage to preserve their power and ideology.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Trump\u2019s objective is to dismantle this regime because he views it as a direct and existential threat to the United States and its allies.<\/p>\n

          <\/p>\n

          Iran openly threatens to wipe Israel off the map, pursues nuclear weapons, shoots down U.S. drones, attacks American bases in Iraq and Syria, and seizes tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the regime exists, it will continue sponsoring terrorism and moving closer to acquiring nuclear weapons. From this perspective, negotiations are ineffective\u2014they provide time for uranium enrichment and missile development.<\/p>\n

          Removing the regime (not the country, but the ruling clerical and IRGC structure) is seen as the only way to eliminate the threat, provide the Iranian people with a path toward normal life, and prevent nuclear blackmail in the future.<\/p>\n

          \n

          For Trump, this is not a moral preference but a strategic necessity: act now, or face a far worse outcome later.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

          He is taking a hardline approach because the clerical regime has long operated as a global destabilizing force. The \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d strategy is the only language it responds to. If carried through, this could become one of the most significant setbacks to Islamist militancy in the past four decades.<\/p>\n

          <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          More than three weeks have passed since the start of large-scale strikes on February 28. The initial sense of rapid 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